Football Betting Tips: How to find and identify a value bet

A value bet is one of the most misunderstood terms in betting.

A bet whose odds have a probability higher than the average probability is called a value bet and a key to successful betting is finding those bets on the betting market.

Our goal is to help you understand points of value betting and you should take the advice listed below very seriously if you are to earn some money from betting.


How to identify a value bet?

Finding a value bet takes a lot of time and effort. If you enjoy betting on sports, our advice is to to specialize in leagues you are familiar with.

For example, if you follow La Liga closely, you should focus on the Spanish top flight, as you will have to be aware of the current form, team news, home and away records of each and every team.

You should put your money on what you know best before starting to expand your field of expertise.

Yet another way of finding a value bet is to set your own odds. When looking at the forthcoming fixtures in the league you bet, try and set the odds for each game and then look at bookmaker odds.

For example, if you think that odds on Bayern Munich to beat Arsenal should be 1.30 (3/10) and bookmaker set higher odds that you think they should be, in that case, we recommend you to bet on the Bundesliga side.

Nonetheless, it’s not a good idea to bet on favourites all the time as odds offered by the bookies are often lower than they should be.

Betting on underdogs should help you earn from betting on long term and Asian Handicap betting is probably the best way to bet on sports.

For example, if you bet on the underdog with +1 Asian Handicap, you will not lose your money even if your team suffer a loss.

You should have in mind that bookmaker odds are a reflection of what they expect bettors to play and you need to understand the real probabilities of either outcome.


Not every value bet is a winning one

In order to gain money from betting, you need to maintain a consistent betting process.

You will have your ups and downs in betting and you should be aware of the fact that if your value bet loses, that the bet did not have value.

Not all bets can be winning bets and you should not lose your confidence when a bet loses.

You need to be patient and smart if you are to make some profit from betting and calculating the winning chance could help you meet your goal.

Sometimes, odds of 1.25 (1/4) represent value, but sometimes odds of 10.00 are worth the shot.

For example, general football predictions are pointing towards Chelsea winning the 2016/2017 Premier League trophy and the Blues are 1.18 (9/50) to clinch the domestic title.

Nonetheless, we believe that betting on Manchester City to win the Premier League (9.50) is worth the risk. Of course, your stakes should be lower when betting on higher odds and vice versa.


Review your results

Never bet more than you can afford to lose and you should not use your money for daily needs for betting.

Every time you plan on placing a bet decide how much you can afford to lose as you can easily become a person with a gambling problem.

You need to review your results and if you lose a lot of money on a monthly basis, you should consider stop betting.

Anyhow, you need to know where you’ve been in order to know where you are going. You have to review every single loss bet and you need to try to understand what went wrong.

If you keep on losing your money when betting on a certain team, we recommend you to put them on a “black list”.

Keeping records is a very important thing when it comes to betting as you will be aware of the profit (loss) you make from betting.


Do not bet on “unpredictable” teams

For example, many people avoid betting on teams who struggle at the back as they need to score at least to goals in order to win a match.

Teams like Atletico Madrid, Chelsea and Juventus, who are capable of keeping a clean sheet in every game should always be your pick.

On the other hand, Liverpool are regarded as an unpredictable team.

The Reds are capable of making life difficult for each and every top-table side, but they often struggle in matches against relegation strugglers.

Anyhow, you should avoid betting on teams who stick to their attacking style of play as it is well known solid defence is the key to success.

Speaking of relegation-threatened teams, a great number of punters wait for the season finale to start betting.

Sides who are desperate to secure the survival leave their hearts on the field in the season finale in order to avoid relegation, but you should always be aware of the team news as bottom-table sides often struggle without key players in the starting XI.

Sunderland usually struggle in the first half of the season, but they eventually somehow manage to secure the Premier League survival.

Nevertheless, some football predictions suggest that the Black Cats will drop to the Championship at the end of the 2016/2017 season.



Every punter wants to get rich quick, but that is easier said than done.

You need to think long term, you need to try finding as many value bets as possible for each Matchday and stick to the amount you bet on each game.

You may increase the amount, but you should do it steadily as putting the whole bankroll on a single bet could lead to a financial disaster.

You should listen to your instincts and to focus on a league or tournament you follow closely if you are to earn extra cash from betting.

On the other hand, if you do not want to put down real money, you should join a fantasy league or tipster competition and you will make it interesting.


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