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Predicting the outcome of a football match is not easy. Even the greatest teams in the world have their off days and relative minnows can often pop up with an unexpected goal right when you least expect it which means betting on a winner is tough.
In the past the average football statistician had to rely on their own research and instincts, but today there is a better way in the form of betting apps. Thanks to online exchanges, such as betfair, punters can now ante-up through their computer or mobile which means it’s now possible to harness technology to improve your chances of success.
Computer processors are much more efficient at calculating odds, outcomes and probabilities than you are, which means it is possible to improve your win rate just by using some of the software that is out there on the open market.
Of course, using a betting app will not make you an instant winner. However, if you combine your knowledge of the game with the apps on offer, then you can make a lot of money in a short period of time, especially if you use a technique known as football modelling.
This strategy basically involves taking various pieces of data, such as how many goals a team has scored in a season or how many away games they have won and working out an average percentage chance of success based on these numbers. In technical terms, this is known as the Poisson Distribution and it involves taking mean averages and translating them into probabilities.
Through the process of soccer modelling, you can get a much clearer picture of how a team stacks up against another in certain games. Once you have got this information, it is then possible to survey the market for the best price. In fact, many of the top betting apps will watch the market for you and automatically place bets when certain conditions are met (i.e. the betting price reaches a certain point).
Although soccer modelling cannot guarantee you a profit, it will increase your betting EV and it is by far the best way to get more out of the game you love. Allowing the app to crunch the numbers will save you a lot of time, time which you can then spend watching the game and waiting as the money rolls in.
Written by Celia Roche
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